Thoughts On This Season's Award Candidates, Pt. 2

I think today's game can be considered the nail in the coffin as far as Felix Hernandez's Cy Young candidacy goes. His record sits at a mediocre 12-12 and with a maximum of 2 starts left in the season the best possible outcome for him is 14-12, which, frankly, is just not good enough for the BBWAA to vote for him. Of course, that 14-12 best case scenario is exactly that, the best possible outcome that could happen in King Felix's next starts and nothing has occurred in the past year to suggest that Felix would have the luck (or run support) to have the best case scenario play itself out.

I know that it's a dead horse subject that many other talented writers have covered and I also know that anything I say at this point would just be redundant. I can't help but feel bad for King Felix though. Take for instance his line from todays game:

8 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 5 K, 4 BB, 15-4 GB/FB, .262 WPA

No, it was not Hernandez's best start of the season as he "only" struck out 5 batters and walked 4. He did however induce a ridiculous 79% GB rate and he ended the game with a .262 WPA, meaning he added a 26% chance of his team winning to the game. What's even more impressive is that he did it against the Blue Jays who score alot of runs at home and against right handed pitching. However, as has been the case all too frequently this year, Felix ended up with the loss despite another impressive line.

This marks the third time the King has had a positive WPA and ended up with the loss. You know how many times CC Sabathia has had that happen to him? None. While I understand the limitations of game scores and WPA (such as luck and context dependence) here are some interesting stats to chew on:

- King Felix's game score for todays effort was 75. He has exceeded this total in 10 other games this year. CC Sabathia on the other hand has only exceeded it 4 times, none of which were losses

- Coming into today Felix Hernandez's average WPA in games he has won is 0.293 while Sabathia's is 0.236. Meanwhile, in games he has lost Felix Hernandez's average WPA is -0.119 while Sabathia's is -0.166. How about in no decisions? Hernandez holds the edge 0.235 to 0.70.

It will be interesting to see what happens in CC Sabathia's start tonight. If he shuts the Rays down and gets his 21st win of the season the Cy Young award is probably his and even if he pitches poorly he is still the front runner, but don't forget who was the better pitcher this year.