Age isn't much of a factor here as Zimmerman is only a year older. With that in mind Offense, Defense and their respective contracts should be the main points of comparison.
Offense:
A comparison of each players offensive numbers from 2010 show exactly how close Longoria and Zimmerman have been offensively. Longoria sports a .302/.387/.514 slash line, while Zimmerman has a .293/.381/.517 line. Both players are walking about 12% of the time and striking out 20% of the time.
When you look at the players wOBA trends by year you can also see how similar these guys have been offensively:
However, upon closer inspection you can see a couple differences between the two that might illuminate the possible progression (or regression) of each players stat line and abilities. For one, the comparison of each players wOBA's look a lot more lopsided when you compare them by their production by age:
When you look at each player's offensive output by age you see that Longoria has definitely been better offensively than Zimmerman. Both have been well above league average, but Longoria has graded out just a little bit better.
A couple numbers might tip us off to the fact that each player is getting even better. For instance, Longoria has increased his walk rate around 1% each year while drastically reducing his strikeout rates (from 27.2% in 2008 to 24.0% in 2009 to 20.7% this year). Zimmerman is also walking more although his strikeouts are trending upwards (from 16.6% to 19.5% to 20.3%). His HR/FB% was consistently around 11.5% from 2006-2008, but shot up to 15.9% in 2009 and has improved even more in 2010, up to 16.3%. Simply put both players are having wonderful years.
However some regression is due for both players, especially Longoria. Evan, partly due to an increase in line drives, has seen a very sharp rise in his BABIP (up from .313 to .345) while at the same time seeing a sharp decline in his HR/FB% (down from 17.6% to 11.2%) that has led to a much lower ISO. Both numbers will probably regress back to their career rates as Longoria's power numbers go up while his average goes down; however, a regression isn't guaranteed so it will be interesting to see what happens in the second half of the season.
With all that being said, I believe Longoria is the better player offensively and if his strikeouts can continue to trend down while his power returns he can become one of the top 5 offensive players in the majors.
Advantage: Longoria
Defense
It should be stated beforehand that Longoria and Zimmerman are probably the two best defensive 3rd basemen in the game. No matter what order you rank them both players are outstanding with the glove.
With that being said, measuring defense is hard, especially when you consider how fluky defensive statistics can be and how biased and subjective traditional scouting reports are. Scouts prefer Zimmerman by a small margin, while the two most trusted defensive statistics, UZR and Total Zone, prefer Longoria. Longo's UZR total from '08-'10 of 34.6 is considerably higher than Zimmerman's 25.7, while his 32 runs above average according to Total Zone during that period trumps Zimmerman's -5. Since I know that Zimmerman is not below average defensively I have to discount the Total Zone numbers, but even if you just look at UZR it becomes clear that statistically Longoria is ahead. I might be wrong, but overall I'd have to conclude that neither player stands out compared to the other and both players add a lot of value with the glove.
Advantage: Draw
Contract
This is where Longoria really stands out compared to Zimmerman as Longo is under contract for a longer period of time at a lower cost to the team; in fact, "Dirtbag" may have the most team friendly contract in all of the majors. Longoria is signed through 2016 at a rate of $7,000,000 per season. Zimmerman also has a team friendly deal as he's signed through 2013 and will make $35,000,000 during that stretch. However, due to the fact that Zimmerman becomes a free agent sooner and makes more per season during the life of his contract, Longoria wins this one hands down.
Advantage: Longoria
Offense
There is no doubt that Zimmerman is one of the most underrated players in the league and a definite franchise player for the Nationals. He deserves more recognition for his performance and I hope that he gets it. With that being said, Longoria is a better value and might just be the better player with more room to develop at this point. Toss in the fact that he's a more captivating personality with the type of true superstar appeal that interests fans and Longoria has to be my pick at third base if i'm given a choice. You really cant go wrong with either though.
No comments:
Post a Comment