AL Rookie Of The Year

This may be "The Year of the Pitcher" throughout major league baseball, but when it comes to the American League ROY race, hitters definitely have a giant edge due to some disappointing seasons from rookie pitchers. Baltimore's top pitching prospect Brian Matusz sports a 5.21 ERA, while Tampa Bay's Wade Davis is the proud owner of a sub-replacement level 5.49 FIP. The Red Sox's Daniel Bard and the Ranger's Neftali Feliz have both been lights out as relievers but I have a problem giving the award to a player who's only going to play at most 70-80 innings a year. With that being said I think the ROY race in the AL is going to come down to three hitters who have outperformed all expectations: Carlos Santana, Brennan Boesch and Austin Jackson.

In the above table numbers in blue are above league averages and numbers in red are below league average. While all three players have performed wonderfully and are on pace for 4+ WAR seasons, one clear front runner becomes obvious upon looking at the table: Cleveland's Carlos Santana.

Coming into the season Carlos Santana was named Cleveland's top prospect and was a consensus top 10 prospect among Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and ESPN. In a little over 150 plate appearances he has more than lived up to the hype, walking an astounding 20% of the time while hitting for both average (.282 AVG) and power (.265 ISO). He may also be better than his numbers suggest, as his xAVG, or "expected average", is 18 points higher than his AVG, suggesting that he has been a little unlucky on balls in play. Scouts always questioned Santana's abilities defensively but he has thrown out 35% of baserunners and has looked decent enough to stay behind the plate, at least for now. Overall he has a .424 wOBA and has amassed 2.1 WAR so far. Over 600 PA's that would amount to an 8+ WAR season, which would be on par with Joe Mauer's historically good 2009. Needless to say Santana is the front runner in my book for the rookie of the year award if he can log enough major league plate appearances.

The other two possible choices, both outfielders for the Tigers, have been both very good and very lucky. Boesch has posted close to league average walk and strikeouts rates and has been average defensively but has been the beneficiary of some amazing luck on balls in play as his xAVG is 62 points lower than his AVG. The power may be real but I expect his AVG to regress down to the .260-.270 range with more playing time.

Unlike Boesch, Austin Jackson was a genuine prospect with high expectations while a member of the Yankees system before being shipped to Detroit in the deal that landed New York center fielder Curtis Granderson. Jackson's stats are not only better than Granderson's disappointing 2010 numbers but they also eclipse Granderson's 2009 results as well. Although Jackson's BABIP stands at a ridiculous .426, that number is not due to regress too steeply due to his top notch speed and high line drive percentage (28%). He has yet to flash any sort of power this season and he strikes out too much, but combine the average with his speed and great defense in centerfield and he has led all rookies in the majors this year with a 2.7 WAR total.

What Carlos Santana is doing now is historic and if he can keep this up he deserves the AL ROY award, but don't discount Boesch or Jackson's contributions either, even if theirs numbers are bound to regress a bit.