FIP vs. FLIP

Something has been eating away at me recently, something so small and insignificant it is nitpicking to even mention it. That being said I've been wondering why we use the acronym "FIP" to describe the particular defense-independent pitching statistic developed by Tom Tango. In particular its been bothering me how the name doesn't acknowledge the fact that luck also plays a big factor in a pitchers results on the field.

I'm going to be lazy here and defer to the Sabermetrics Library to define exactly what FIP (fielding-independent pitching) is to anyone who doesn't already know:

Revolutionary research by Voros McCracken revealed that the amount of balls that fall in for hits against pitchers did not correlate well across seasons. This infers that pitchers don’t have much control over balls in play and that a talent evaluator should focus on the things that a pitcher can control, namely, strikeouts, walks, and homeruns. The next step is to properly weight these as a walk is not as hurtful as a homerun and a strikeout has less impact than both. Research by Tom Tango and others has shown that the following formula acts as the best predictor for following season ERA:

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP-IBB))-(2*K))/IP+constant

The constant is solely to bring FIP onto an ERA scale for comparison purposes and ease of use. The constant is generally around 3.20, but can be derived by finding the league-average FIP and subtracting that result from league-average ERA.

So in short, FIP measures, “how many earned runs per nine a pitcher would have given up, if performance on balls in play and timing were assumed to be league average.”

I propose that we change the acronym "FIP" to "FLIP" or "fielding and luck independent pitching". While their is a definite correlation between team UZR and FIP-ERA differential, some teams like the Diamondbacks (who have the 6th best UZR total in the majors but average an ERA 0.39 higher than their collective FIP) and the Braves (who have a defense that owns a -9.7 UZR but have outperformed their FIPS) , display how defense isn't the only thing that affects pitcher outcomes. I highly doubt that any sabermetrically astute individual would deny the role that "luck" plays in pitcher performance

Now, taking on what causes what we call "luck" is another story all together. I'll let Athletics Nation tactfully go there.

I can't believe I just wrote a whole article about one letter in a fucking acronym. *Faceslap!*

UPDATE

Somehow Tom Tango found this article and spared a couple minutes

to rip me a new asshole here. How

awesome is that? This marks the second time I've been mentioned in passing by one of my favorite sports writers/analysts, the first being when Joe Posnanski quoted a joke I made about Derek Jeter (along with about 4 other peoples'

jokes) in an article he wrote back in May. The joke, like this post, was admittedly not a very good one but I still appreciate being mentioned by a pair of guys who I respect so much. It vindicates my pursuit of baseball/sabermetric knowledge in some weird, desperate way.