Jonathan Sanchez, Walks and Pitching Success

Jonathan Sanchez is a pitcher with electrifying "stuff" who's capable of absolutely dominating a lineup. His slider rated out as one of the best in the game during the 2009 season, the year he threw a no-hitter. He has struck out over a batter an inning over the past three full seasons and posted a 3.07 ERA in 2010 while pitching for the Giants. Today he showed off that electric stuff, holding the Tigers hitless through 4 2/3 innings and not surrendering a run during his 5 full innings.

He is also a pitcher with absolutely NO command. This can be to his benefit at times, on nights when he is "effectively wild" and batters are swinging at pitches out of the zone. More often than not, however, his lack of command leads to high walk rates and far too many baserunners. His lowest BB/9 rate is 4.27 in 2008. This year he's walking 7.67 batters per nine innings, or over 4 more batters than the league average. It's due to this lack of command that he has only posted an above average ERA in one of his seven seasons in the majors.

All of this got me thinking: who is the starting pitcher who walked the most batters in a year he posted a sub-3.00 ERA? So over to Fangraphs I went, ridiculously looking up statistics like a far less skilled/important Joe Posnanski (or Mark Simon), and here's what I found:

• Since 1870, 2437 separate and individual seasons have produced sub-3.00 ERAs.
• 9 players have had sub-3.00 ERAs in a season that they walked over 5.0 batters per nine.
• Nolan Ryan and Johnny Vander Meer both have two such seasons.
• The most recent 5.0 BB/9, sub-3.00 season? Daisuke Matsuzaka in 2008.
• The highest walk rate in such a season? Nolan Ryan who walked a ridiculous 6.14 batters per nine and still managed a 2.77 ERA in 1977.
• The lowest strikeout rate in such a season? Hal Newhouser in 1942 who's rate of 5.05 K/9 was lower than his walk rate.

Interesting stuff. If looking at these pages of data tells me anything, it's that it's possible to have good results as a pitcher despite bad command. It's just very unlikely, so Royals fans, please temper your expectations of Jonathan Sanchez because more likely than not he's going to be a below average pitcher, yet again.